- All eyes will be on the crucial state assembly election to the most populous Uttar Pradesh is stating the obvious. In line with the billing accorded to the polling, major political parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Samajwadi Party are leaving no stone unturned in wooing the electorate. It is no secret that any elections in the country will be fought on caste alliances forged keeping in mind the complexities of various permutations, combinations, and calculations demanded by the social engineering requirements. And UP is no exception to the same. Of course, it is not lost on anybody that the development, which should have been the sole criteria to decide on the eventual winners at the hustings, has taken a backseat since a long time back.
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- Remember, the first batch of 690 assembly seats across five states including UP will go to polls beginning February 10. Attention will be largely focused on UP, where the assembly has 403 seats or 58% of the total. Further, the first two rounds of polling in UP will have a predominant focus on the western belt, the state’s relatively less poor agricultural regions contributing about 73 seats. Now, this particular region holds significance for various reasons even though it doesn’t provide the bulk of representation in the assembly. Nonetheless, the campaign themes here encapsulate the full spectrum of both identity and economic issues that have captured public attention like never before. Why this unbridled clamoring for the region? Crucial Jat voters, you see.
- The highlight of the current phase of campaigning for western UP is the pitch made to attract Jat voters. As you are aware, they have been integral to BJP’s social alliance in UP that has spectacularly delivered in three successive elections since 2014. However, the passage of three farm laws in Parliament in 2020 grossly undermined this coalition as Jat farmers were a part of the agitation against the reform. Agreed, farm laws were withdrawn last November but not before the farmers union went on with the agitation to repeal the same for over a year. Moreover, the agitation also brought out larger problems in west UP’s agrarian economy, which is dependent on the government price support system for two key crops, wheat, and sugarcane.
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- Add to it the presence of a significant Muslim population in many constituencies has only helped in introducing a big element of polarization in the campaigning. The moot point to ponder over here is will BJP’s winning social coalition hold or will the other pole, the SP and RLD alliance, create a successful grouping. Make no mistake, perennial issues such as outstanding sugarcane dues to farmers owed by sugar mills and disgruntlement over ticket distribution will affect the dynamics. As history suggests, west UP has often set the tone for elections in other regions of the state and as such, BJP has pulled out all stops in this tight contest with many stalwarts embarking on door-to-door campaigns.
- Disappointingly, solutions forthcoming from the political parties to agrarian challenges suggest no poll outcome will have a meaningful economic impact. Populist measures like free electricity and the creation of a corpus for sugarcane payments are being bandied about. As such, elections don’t offer much for millions of young job seekers in UP.
