- No sooner the summer months approach, every concerned authority will be eagerly looking forward to the Indian Meteorological Department’s monsoon forecast to know what is in store for the nation. Since the country is still largely identified as an agrarian economy, the southwest monsoon forecast goes a long way in helping the farmers to prepare adequately before the sowing season commences. As such, the recent season’s first long-range forecast for the 2022 southwest monsoon conveys a mixed message. Of course, the forecast of a normal monsoon was reassuring, particularly given that its accuracy in the last decade was better than the preceding one.
PC: India Spend
- However, the long period average rainfall that serves as the monsoon benchmark was lowered a bit to 87 cm. Mind you, it’s a reminder of larger forces at play in the climate system and the need to adapt to both warmer conditions and a possible decline in precipitation. As you are aware, the southwest monsoon is the mainstay of India’s agricultural cycle and through it the entire economy. This year’s monsoon needs to be located against the backdrop of three important developments. The most important of the three is the possible fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war as the two countries jointly account for about 30% of global wheat exports.
- Interestingly, India, which exported Rs. 74,491 crore of cereals in FY21 is expected to have an outsized impact on the global market this year. The other two developments are the escalating annual mean land surface temperature and the water stress in northwest India, which will have a long-term impact on Indian agriculture. Remember, India’s yields on most essential crops have improved over the last decade. As a result, even though the extent of agricultural land has shrunk marginally, both cereal and vegetable output has increased. Nonetheless, the worsening environmental stress calls for fairly large changes in Indian agriculture.
PC: ET Online
- Firstly, there’s a need to find a durable solution to our overflowing granaries. It is reported that India’s buffer stock norm for foodgrains at the beginning of the financial year is 21 million tonnes. The actual holding has been over two times the required level in the recent past. The Union Government needs to work out effective ways to offload the excess as elevated global cereal prices can influence domestic market prices through the trade channel. Shifting the balance of output towards horticultural products should be pursued as a long-term solution. One good development is the area under vegetable cultivation increased by 10% over the last five years.
- The emphasis also needs to be placed on securing the storage platforms which are under the aegis of the Food Corporation of India. As reported extensively, millions of tonnes of foodgrains getting wasted due to inadequate and ill-equipped storage facilities, rat menace, and general slackness in safeguarding the precious resources should be addressed. As the Prime Minister himself recently exhorted, India possesses the capabilities to feed food to the world which can be ensured if only the authorities entrusted with the responsibilities pull up their socks. Let’s hope the crisis unfolding in the world firmament provides an opportunity for India to essay an impactful role.
