- The ongoing political potpourri in Pakistan is not only not surprising but also mirrors yet again how fragile the democratic system in the country functions where the hold of the military establishment firmly controls the elected regime even after several decades of independence. The incumbent, a cricketer turned politician turned Prime Minister, is battling to stay in power was obvious for the past few weeks even as opposition mounted a concerted attempt at removing the gentleman in the form of a no-confidence vote that had garnered international attention. However, what panned out during the crucial vote the other day is not surprising either coming from a struggling democratic system trying to stay relevant.
PC: AMARJIT SINGH
- Name it as a political yorker or a googly or a more appropriate reverse swing, since the incumbent is a famous former cricketer, Imran Khan’s national assembly dissolution and calling for polls have not of course decisively ended the match. As you know, Pakistan’s Supreme Court is hearing the matter and its subsequent decision can dramatically change the dynamics. Interestingly, breezily killing a no-confidence motion is dubious parliamentary practice witnessed around the world, even in Pakistan as well. Further, after we chuckle at the claim by the Pakistan army’s PR arm that the forces have no role in this soap opera, the generals will have their own calculations to position themselves at the center of action in the present crisis too.
- Indications are that Imran Khan, who seems to not have lost his ability to mobilize street protests, may not docilely follow whatever the court and the army decide as he has already become the first Pakistani PM to temporarily outmanoeuvre an army-backed de-facto coup of sorts. Intriguingly, had the no-confidence motion been debated and voted on, and had, as was widely expected, Imran lost that vote, he would have been the first Pakistani PM to lose office through parliamentary means, and not via usual direct military or judicial intervention. Mind you, Pakistan can always surprise and as such, all kinds of scenarios are possible, including violence.
PC: Vishwa Engineer
- Remember, two things won’t change in Pakistan in whichever way the political crisis plays out and whoever is the country’s next PM. First, despite the army General’s recent comments on the importance of talks with India, terror will continue to be a Pakistani policy against this country. Second, the country’s economic crisis will continue to deepen as consumer price inflation is over 12% now and the Pakistani rupee has lost 50% of its value in five years. Note that the country’s debt keeps piling higher, and minus IMF and occasional help from Saudis and Qataris, the country will go bankrupt. And this spells trouble for India as well as the international community per se.
- Sadly, Pakistan’s generals still think that the country’s so-called geographic position is a card that can be played to get help from a great power like China in place of a once thick-as-skin ally in the US. And that strategy may be running out of steam since China’s commitment is unlikely to match America’s when the latter was obsessively focused on the so-called war on terror. Of course, Beijing’s global strategic view has many components and using Pakistan to harass India is only one of many. In conclusion, our neighbour is on the boil yet again and as such, no sooner the political uncertainty is settled much better for the international community, more so for India.
