- The global community was aware of the pitfalls of the Belt and Road Initiative of the Chinese communist party when it was first announced with great fanfare. Few countries expressed great apprehensions about the infrastructure project, and the Indian establishment was one of those nations that raised a red flag right from the beginning. Also, the entire world is aware of how Xi Jinping led China is pressing ahead with its ambitious, expansionist, aggressive, and devil-may-care attitude toward the global world order. Several international territorial disputes that the Chinese establishment is involved in presently testifies to the fact how brazenly the Dragon Nation is pressing ahead with its unsubstantiated claims.
PC: Manish Shukla
- As if the pandemic-induced challenges were not enough to befall the global community, the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine has only further exacerbated the economic scenarios all around. Call it a blessing in disguise or a natural justice, one of the geo-economic consequences of the war in Ukraine is the likely setback to China’s Belt and Road initiative turning into reality in the coming days. Touted as a century-defining initiative aimed at restoring China’s central role in global trade and connectivity, the BRI had also managed to rub several countries the wrong way. This has been widely reported in every international forum as well.
- Note that one of the main BRI routes that link China to the lucrative European Union market passes through the vast Russian landmass. Remember, even Ukraine had expressed a desire to be part of this trade and transit route to Europe that sought to build upon the old Soviet rail network. However, the ongoing Ukraine war and Western sanctions on Russia mean this BRI route may no longer be viable owing to the inescapable challenges facing the initiative. Delving further, China could still use the sea route to Europe, but BRI is not just about trade and infrastructure anymore.
PC: RussianRail
- It is also about exporting Chinese debt abroad through opaque structuring of loans and investments, enhancing Chinese strategic influence in target countries, increasing the Chinese Communist Party’s control over minority-ethnicity areas in western China, and creating alternate land-based energy routes too. The last one is to allow China to overcome the age-old Malacca Dilemma. BRI was hitting potholes even before the Ukraine war broke out is stating the obvious. As the current economic crises in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, two countries that took on substantial Chinese loans, show, BRI hasn’t been the miracle economic booster it was advertised to be.
- Rather, the model of providing loans without due diligence has led to poor economic governance. Likewise, Chinese projects in Africa have often seen complaints about Chinese firms not hiring enough locals, leading to clashes in some instances. With the US, EU, and G7 sanctioning Russia and increasing strategic competition with China, BRI looks in for rough weather. Therefore, India should use this opportunity to work smartly with the US on trusted infrastructure projects such as the Blue Dot Network and Build Back Better World to counter China’s designs in South Asia. This allows India to position itself as a force to reckon with in the region.
