- It is becoming increasingly evident that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is not resulting in any desired outcome for Moscow even after a month. The stiff resistance put up by the Ukrainian forces is not only commendable but also shows the steely resolve to disallow Russia from simply rummaging through the nation. Even as the international community berates and the US-led nations piles on the sanctions on Russia, the Indian response to the evolving situation is on expected lines. Abstaining from condemning the move in the United Nations General Assembly as well as United Nations Security Council resolutions has been the Indian response so far. The moot point to ponder over here is how far India can remain neutral on the matter.
PC: Geeta Mohan
- Not too long, I guess. Understand, the question of whether the costs of continued neutrality on Moscow’s aggression will outweigh benefits, purely by national interest calculations, is a matter of conjecture that the Indian think tank should be considering sooner than later. Of course, the Indian Foreign Minister has defended India’s stance in Parliament. However, while national interest definitely means keeping an eye on the Russian supply of arms to India, that dependence works both ways. As the largest buyer of Russian arms, New Delhi has leverage over Moscow. As such, if India did take a principled stance on Russia, it is unlikely the latter will retaliate by making arms supply difficult.
- The world is already witnessing the hypocritical stance of the Western and European nations being perpetrated in the name of so-called sanctions. As you are aware, despite EU nations sanctioning Russia and actively aiding the Ukrainian resistance, they continue to buy Russian energy and Moscow is extremely happy to supply it. Moreover, Russia needs arms exports even more given the cost of sanctions on its economy. Thus, there is a bargaining power India should use diplomatically in the coming days. Remember, India’s primary concern ought to be the geopolitical implications of the conflict keeping in mind the future challenges that we may have to confront. Two crucial points need consideration here.
PC: istockphoto
- Given that the Russian military operation has not gone according to plan, suppose Moscow ups the offensive ante in awful ways to crush Ukrainian resistance. Will it reflect well on India then to have taken such a cautious approach? Will India still sit out another UN resolution? Further, however the Ukraine invasion ends, if Putin is increasingly shunned by most of the democratic world, with which India has much business to conduct, and China continues to be in his corner, what might be the implications for India down the line as geopolitical stances harden all around? It is inevitable New Delhi keep an eye on Russia’s actions in Ukraine as well as America’s and China’s future responses and be ready to change its mind, in the national interest.
