- By all accounts, looking at how the US-Israel conflict with Iran has panned out in the last few weeks, Donald Trump must be finding himself in a great predicament simply because what was thought out as a walk in the park vis-à-vis steamrolling Tehran hasn’t gone as per the envisaged script. That Iran could not only thwart the incessant bombardment on the vital infrastructure but also could retaliate in a counterattacking move showcases the resilience of the Iranian leadership in no small measure. In a pragmatic move, Iran has targeted the US allies – read as neighbouringcountries – thereby not only prolonging the conflict in the region wide and far but also has succeeded in severely disrupting the energy supplies for the whole world. This was expected.
PC: Channel 4
- How long will the conflict last, with the heat of economic meltdown courtesy of the short supply of critical energy being felt across the world? While the whole world expected Trump to show his pragmatic side in his recent address, his 19-minute rambling monologue offered a conflicting, contradictory take on the prevailing situation and the likely trajectory, as expected. We still don’t know what Trump wants. Suddenly, Iran’s uranium is buried ‘so far underground’ that it isn’t a red flag anymore. Regardless, Trump might bomb the country ‘back to the Stone Age’. Will he put boots on the ground? No idea. All told, he might pack up and leave in 2-3 weeks. Or not. The global community knows one aspect for sure. Trump can’t be trusted. Simple. He’s unpredictable.
PC: MSN
- Trump will do what he wants, on the spur of the moment. We can hope for the best but must prepare for the worst. What’s the best? That war stopped, and the Hormuz Strait reopened to all ships, while we slept peacefully. That didn’t happen. Second-best is that the war stops soon. But that’s up to Israel more than the US. Omens on Kalshi, America’s top prediction market – and currently a better barometer of geopolitics than the prez – aren’t good either. Recently, 71% of bets were on Hormuz reopening only by Jan 1 next year, not June or July this year. This, despite the UK’s ongoing efforts to explore ‘diplomatic and political measures’ to unlock the Strait, along with more than 30 other countries. Economies will suffer everywhere if the war lasts six months.
PC: Zee Business
- Back home, India’s fast-growing economy needs all the oil it can get, currently around 5mn barrels per day. A dollar’s increase in crude adds $5mn a day in costs, and at current prices, crude’s about $40 costlier than it was in Feb. That’s a drag on transport, manufacturing, and agriculture – not only as diesel for tractors, but also fertilisers. Oil is a key input for plastic, manmade fibres, and thousands of different chemicals. So is gas, half of which India gets from the Gulf. India has managed its fuel supplies well through the first month of war, but at some point, retail fuel prices could rise, leading to inflation. Prices of jet fuel for international flights have doubled. Sea freight rates have also risen by 40%. This insane war should stop forthwith. Trump should call a truce.
