Misfiring Exit Polls! Not Bankable at All!

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  • Along with cinema as an important mode of entertainment, it is also often mentioned that entertaining cricket is no less than a religion in our country and with good reasons as the immense following the game enjoys rightly suggests. Apart from the national passion surrounding anything and everything associated with cricket, there is yet another similarly popular indulgence that spurs the citizens no end. The anticipation of extremely unreliable events in the form of election results with such keenness and enthusiasm is undeniable.

PC: Taha Anis

  • Paraphernalia associated with the elections can be rightfully categorized as a masala pot-boiler endowed with all ingredients to make many go bonkers. Indeed, once the polling concludes, all eyes shift at the ensuing results and the wait becomes unbearable. As you are aware, the nature of our democratic setup ensures that the nation is witness to one or the other form of elections round the year perpetually. Democratic setup and our constitution are framed in such a manner that it keeps our electoral machinery chugging along in a continuous loop.
  • You name it, starting from the parliamentary, upper house, assembly, councils, Zilla panchayat, taluk panchayat, village panchayat, district co-operative banks, byelections, and others requiring balloting to choose elected representatives are conducted peacefully. A huge salute to the Election Commission of India for undertaking such a gigantic task in a diverse and densely populated country and to emerge successful always. Electing one or the other representatives throughout the year keeps the electioneering machinery busy.

PC: Jonathan Murphy

  • Understandably, the interest generated in these polling and the ensuing results are akin to the one witnessed during any of the known big celebrations vis-à-vis festivals/cricket. Digital revolution witnessed over the years has endeared all the viewers who are hooked onto umpteen number of electronic news channels, including the vernacular media to get their fill about the unraveling events on the election result front.
  • Relentlessly striving to satiate the news-hungry public with the latest and breaking news, the electronic media as well as print media has a set template to embrace two modes of predictions in the form of surveys. Pre-poll surveys and Exit-polls embarking on an effort to gauge the mood of the people, their preferences vis-à-vis candidates and the party, possible outcome leading to the formation of a new government, and who might lose out big-time as against unexpected gainers. People eagerly wait for surveys to enlighten them.

PC: Voting Polls

  • Funnily, though many surveys/exit polls do manage to near accurately indicate which way the wind is blowing, there are few occasions as well leaving the agencies red-faced with diametrically opposite results emerging once the counting process commences. Recently concluded elections in Bihar exit polls is a case in point when the results emerged contrary to the expectations. As Donald Trump passionately advocated ‘silent voters’ would bail him out, our poll experts should also earnestly attempt at tapping into this segment.
  • Womenfolk – poor, illiterate, and invisible – have a huge say in our elections. Effectively including this largely unaccounted segment would provide a viable option to arrive at credible predictions. Besides this, there are too many imponderables like sharp polarization making it a tough task to map possible performances at the hustings. Thus, agencies leading exit polls could adopt a more scientific, inclusive, and credible methodology to guesswork outcomes. The nation still loves it, though!

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Krishna MV
Krishna is a Post Graduate with specialization in English Literature and Human Resource Management, respectively. Having served the Indian Air Force with distinction for 16 years, Armed Forces background definitely played a very major role in shaping as to who & what he is right now. Presently, he is employed as The Administrator of a well known educational institute in Bangalore. He is passionate about sharing thoughts by writing articles on the current affairs / topics with insightful dissection and offering counter / alternate views thrown in for good measure. Also, passionate about Cricket, Music – especially vintage Kannada & Hindi film songs, reading – non-fictional & Self-Help Books, and of course, fitness without compromising on the culinary pleasures.

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