- It was amply evident from the reports emanating during the last two years of pandemic horrors that none of the governments across the universe are revealing exact figures of deaths that could be attributed to the deadly novel coronavirus. Whether it’s the most developed and advanced nations or developing nations or for that matter poor countries, the data on the actual deaths reported owing to the virus menace is sketchy at best. The Indian establishment cannot be faulted for not being candid enough to admit the death figures in absolute numbers. The discerning Indian citizens know the official figures being bandied about are not true.
PC: Massmed.Org
- The horror scenes and visuals of suffering infected personnel gasping for breath, bed, and elusive life-saving medications during the horrific second Covid wave are still fresh in the collective memories of the people. The introduction of the vaccines and the subsequent push to achieve the envisaged coverage during the inoculation drive did help in further thwarting the virus from spreading its fatal tentacles. However, there are always questions raised about the death statistics concerning India. Against this backdrop, the World Health Organization’s recent reports in its 2022 global update of the excess deaths linked with Covid make for disconcerting reading.
- This statistical estimate, which was first published a year ago, covers the period between January 2020 and December 2021. The estimate is that global excess mortality on account of Covid is mind-numbing 14.9 million, more than twice the reported deaths. Most pertinently, in India’s case, WHO estimates the excess mortality to be 4.7 million, almost 10 times the reported deaths. Of course, the Government of India has strongly disputed the findings as it disagrees with the methodology underpinning WHO’s statistical model. Make no mistake, the methodology adopted by the WHO raises more questions than answers.
PC: The Lancet
- There are two important technical points to consider here. Excess mortality is the difference between the deaths that have occurred and the number that would be expected in the absence of Covid. Further, as all countries did not have the relevant data for the two years studied, alternative data sources were used for such countries, including India. Thus, the WHO estimate is not final by any stretch of the imagination. Indeed, there will be an update in 2023. One of the findings so far is that even developed Western countries didn’t fare well when excess mortality is adjusted according to population size.
- Separately, the debate over WHO’s statistical model is not bad as it may catalyse refinements. As mentioned above, India’s statistical system needs much improvement even after moving beyond Covid data. Policy-making today heavily depends on the production of timely and reliable data-including CRS and SRS records. Honestly, India hasn’t fared well in this aspect. Mind you, a key test for the relevance of any regularly disseminated data is the ability to stick to schedules. On the whole, India’s data collection exercise has to improve considerably. Upon realizing the same, the GOI will be able to put its point across more convincingly.
