- It’s becoming increasingly apparent that the US/Israel joint operation on Iran is going nowhere for the former since the resilience, grit, surprising counterattacking measures, and pragmatic approach by the latter must be causing more than disconcerting for all stakeholders. What was initially thought about as a few-day war with the mighty US military power, combined with the superior Israeli war machine, is turning out to be a prolonged one, not envisaged in the script written by the joint forces. However, expectedly, no sovereign nation would simply allow its land to be demolished without retorting against the enemy in right earnest. Iran is precisely indulging in counterattacking the US bases in the neighbouring countries allied to Washington.
PC: CGTN
- Therefore, unsurprisingly, gas/oil/fuel supplies to the whole world stand affected with the prices soaring past comfortable levels, leading to many economies staring at challenging times ahead. Now, the Iran war has entered a troubling stage, where most likely outcomes look more destabilizing than the US planned for. The Iran conflict has moved into a tense situation with multilayered consequences expected and no outcome guaranteed. The early phase was dramatic and decisive: The US/Israel eliminated Ayatollah Khamenei in a stunning strike. That momentum continued. Ali Larijani, a key figure in Iran’s national security establishment, was killed. Soon after, intelligence minister Esmaeil Khatib met a similar fate. More such moves are anticipated.
PC: The Indian Express
- Meanwhile, a US naval vessel, believed to be carrying marines, edges closer to West Asia, fuellingspeculation of a possible ground operation inside Iran. Nearly four weeks into the conflict, certain realities are becoming clearer. First, air power alone, even when precise and relentless, rarely delivers regime change. History offers no convincing example of regimes collapsing solely under aerial assault. While Iran’s leadership has been significantly degraded, and institutions like Basij are under pressure, the system has shown commendable resilience. New figures are stepping in, almost as quickly as others are removed, suggesting depth within the regime’s structure. If outright regime change through military strikes seems unlikely, the alternative is more volatile.
PC: The Indian Express
- Internal collapse via civil unrest. Both Trump and Netanyahu have called for Iranians to rise against their leadership. Netanyahu’s appeal to public celebrations like Nowruz may not be cultural; it may be strategic, hoping that gatherings could ignite dissent. Yet, recent history tempers such expectations. Protests earlier this year were met with brutal force, reportedly leaving tens of thousands dead. Thought battered/weakened, the regime still commands powerful instruments of repression. An uprising, if it occurs, could spiral not into reform, but into uncontained utter chaos. The Gulf countries’ calls for restraint to warring countries have so far gone unheard. The situation is dangerous, with all signs of reaching uncontrollable levels sooner or later.
