- The subject adage has been bandied out by humankind for ages and holds true every word of it even now. As the day gives way to dark, the old give way to new and young, and the stale give way to fresh, every adversity also brings along equal opportunity in sync with the law of the universe. As you are aware, the pandemic over almost three years has singed the global community in more than one way. The economic downturn and the accompanying existential challenges faced by humanity are unparalleled whose aftereffects are creating ripples as we speak/read. Did someone mention we got to move on? Of course.
PC: Adam Ortman
- Many countries are still struggling to come out of the savage devastations caused to the economy as well as grappling with a crisis like unemployment, recession, and unreliable future. As the pandemic slowly makes its way out thanks to the aggressive vaccination drives immunizing citizens around the world, earlier imposed harsh measures like lockdowns and shutdowns naturally should find no place ideally. However, a country like China where the Covid-19 virus originated still embracing measures like strict lockdown defies logic and pragmatic economic sense. On top of it, we are still reeling from the supply chain disruptions caused by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict which offers no foreseeable closure.
- While the universe has moved on with the maxim, learning to live with the virus, China subjecting its citizens to lockdown measures is uncalled for. No wonder, sporadic incidents of Chinese citizens defying the lockdowns are on the rise. The recent surge in a fresh wave of infections has Chinese authorities imposing another shutdown in some large urban centres will have a cascading effect on the fragile world economy. Experts predict that the economic fallout of endless curbs in the world’s second-largest economy will ripple out into 2023, a year IMF forecast will witness a continuing global slowdown in economic momentum.
PC: Peter Isackson
- The global economy is estimated to grow 2.7% in 2023, with the three powerhouses, the US, China, and the Euro area, struggling. The bright spot will be India, expected to grow at 6.1%, with some pundits predicting a higher rate. What does the evolving situation entail for the Indian position vis-a-vis positioning itself in the global pecking order? Let’s delve into the matter. India’s heft as the fastest-growing major economy in 2023 neatly fits with its presidency of the G20. Economic might does provide the country leverage to realise other goals for collective welfare. Independently, it will also help India’s negotiators push for better terms in the ongoing free trade talks. But notwithstanding bright economic prospects in the immediate future, policymakers should not lose sight of structural weakness.
- The Union Government’s urban jobs report for July-September showed that even in the country’s most dynamic areas, the unemployment rate was 7.2%. Worryingly, a deeper challenge for India is that only 46% of the eligible population was in the workforce in 2021 compared to a global average of 59%. Indeed, it’s a symptom of the challenges we face in terms of the quality of human resources, the single most important factor in determining our long-term economic potential. In conclusion, India’s short term is bright. The long-term needs a lot of work.
