- By all indications, Donald Trump’s misadventure in perpetrating the Iran war alongside Israel has not yielded the desired outcome thus far. All those bombastic claims, grandiose announcements, and condescending attempts at ridiculing the Iranian leadership during the initial days of the conflict in the Middle East have proved nothing but mere talk. The resilience shown by the present line of Iranian leadership despite losing several top-level political and military leaders showed the whole world the capabilities of the nation battered over the decades by restrictions/sanctions. Iran will not bow. The latest conflict has only helped in further exacerbating the crucial energy disruptions that all countries are so badly dependent on to keep their economies under control.
PC: The CSR Journal
- The recently failed peace talks between the US and Iran must have worried the global community, hoping something concrete would emerge after the ceasefire announcement. Let’s dwell on the matter further. If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, Trump’s blockade of the Hormuz Strait is a compliment to Iran. For 45 days already, Iran has blocked this geographical tap, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows. The only tankers going in and out have been those filled at Iran’s own ports. In fact, Iran shipped more oil daily, through March, than it does normally. It also got a sanctions waiver on 140mn barrels of oil already at sea. Without these concessions, global oil prices would have been much higher. Thanks for the small mercies.
PC: The Atlantic
- However, Trump’s blockade is specifically directed at tankers transiting Iranian ports. So, between Trump and Iran, the chokehold of Hormuz is complete, much to the agitation of the whole world. This explains Iran’s warning to Americans: “You will soon miss $4 to $5 gasoline”. A likely scenario, considering benchmark prices, which had cooled after last week’s ceasefire, rose 7%. We don’t need complex wargaming to see that the resumption of hostilities could push crude past $120 again. If the US blocks tankers carrying Iranian oil, Iran won’t let other tankers pass peacefully. It will attack them with drones and missiles. It could also resume strikes on Gulf energy infra, reducing oil and gas availability for months, even years. This is a dangerous situation for all.
PC: 1Lurer
- Note that pre-war, 130 vessels used to pass through the Strait daily. Can the US escort, say, 100 a day? Can it guarantee the safety of each one? With insurance rates as high as they are, what are the odds that ships will run the risk of a hit, even with the US Navy’s shield? On the other hand, what can the US realistically do about tankers loaded with Iranian oil? Can it sink them? It better not, for the ecological nightmare would be on it. Can it pursue and seize them? Don’t forget the bulk of Iranian oil goes to China. Trump needs this war to end quickly because high energy prices and inflation will hurt his party in the US mid-term elections. But expecting the Iranian regime to cave in is unrealistic. There’s no way but to resume talks. And Trump should focus on this.
