- Now that the Taliban has conquered the county unarguably, the question as to what is in store for the Islamist group vis-à-vis administration of the war-ravaged landscape would prima-facie lead to summarize as anything but a cakewalk for sure. There is a huge difference between Taliban 1.0 back in the 1990s and Taliban 2.0 regime in the hugely altered geopolitical scenario now. Thus, the leaders of the fundamentalist group would be expected to trade more cautiously this time around without reverting to an excruciatingly brutal earlier avatar that largely defined them. Of course, Afghan citizens cannot be faulted for expressing apprehensions and disbelief even if the Taliban leaders are sounding out less menacing.
PC: CLIVE WILLIAMS
- It is easy to overthrow the foreign-powered government but is bound to present varied challenges to the Taliban in terms of managing the grave economic difficulties bogging the nation. Reports indicate that the Joe Biden administration has frozen the foreign currency assets and gold of the Afghan central bank, DAB, which is lodged in the US. On top of it, the IMF has frozen its credit line to Afghanistan. Such moves only portend how tougher the coming days ahead would be in running a country embellished with a lopsided economy to boot. As the Afghan’s tattered economy is acutely vulnerable to a shift in the stance of its Western and Eastern donors, the future all but appears challenging for the new regime.
- Note that the nominal GDP of the nation is close to $20 billion, and the problem lies in the composition of the GDP per se. The IMF in 2019 said that aid is nearly 40% of GDP, while it is estimated that drug trafficking contributed 6-11% of GDP as per the UN. As can be inferred, half the economy is at risk and the counterproductive effects will be felt by the ordinary poor citizens which constitutes more than half the population. A measure of the importance of aid shows up in growth rates too as it averaged about 7% when aid flow was abundant between 2003 and 2012. Subsequently, the growth rate dropped to a range between 2-3% when the aid flow began to taper.
PC: Mehtab Haider
- A major concern is the current account deficit which stands at an unsustainable 27.5% of GDP if official grants are taken away. The challenges seem grave as a mere 12% of the land is arable in Afghanistan supporting 70% of the population. Of course, the country is also very vulnerable to climate change impacts too. There is a silver line in the horizon holding a rich promise. A Pentagon study undertaken a decade ago estimated untapped mineral wealth of over $ 1 trillion including gold, copper, and perhaps most importantly lithium, the mineral that holds the key to the world’s electric vehicle future.
- As is known, China happens to be the dominant player in the lithium-ion battery space. It gets interesting here as the country also happens to have the Taliban’s benefactor, Pakistan, economically bound to China through debt. As is its wont, China will make efforts to enroll the Afghan economy in return for mining rights without concern for the global opinion. Against this backdrop, the Indian think tank should not mind opening up a communication channel, even indirect or back-channel, with the Taliban to stay relevant in this game of political manoeuvres.
