- Since we were growing up, how often we all felt berated with unbridled information barrage about being the inhabitants of one of the two most populous nations in the world. Not only that but also made to realize how poor the country is alongside the humongous population growth steadily witnessed over the decades. Ever since India achieved self-sufficiency in food and gradually started gaining acceptance as one of the most promising developing nations competing for due recognition and space amongst the global audience, the aspirational society threw open its arms to embrace everything that a modern world has to offer.
PC: Marat Iliyasov
- However, the exploding population concern was always hindering the developmental strategies of successive governments rendering its efforts to yield very limited results. Of course, the country is also witnessing extremely unpopular and forceful population control measures initiated during the 1970s when the Grand Old Party was in the saddle. With education gaining ground and persistent dissemination of information on the virtues of birth control measures, the situation vis-à-vis uncontrolled population growth was arrested over the last couple of decades. The results are there for all to see.
- As we stand today, we are second to China in population numbers and all set to surpass the Dragon Nation to become the world’s most populous nation by next year as per the latest United Nations projection. This projection comes four years earlier than previously predicted provoking the usual fulminations from some political leaders. Let us further delve into the matter. India will overtake China not because it has failed to control its population as some of the opposition political honchos would like us to believe. As is widely articulated across the globe, China’s population growth has rapidly slowed down over the last decade.
PC: Arendse Huld
- This situation has occurred largely because of the consequence of China’s decades-long one-child policy. Intriguingly, Chinese authorities are scrambling to reverse this demographic slump – couples were allowed to have three children in 2021. Therefore, China should serve as a lesson to our political leaders on the downsides of heavy-handed population control measures. Mind you, India has seen its population growth decline more steadily. As per the latest NFHS-5 data, the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement level to 2. Studies indicate that India’s population will peak at 1.5-1.6 billion in the decade between 2040 and 2050. Following that the population will contract and is expected to fall below the billion mark by 2100.
- Note that India’s problem is not population, it’s policy. Some populous states like Bihar and UP with low levels of education and non-farm employment have TFR significantly more than the replacement level. The demographic dividend of a large population can be attained only when the young are taught reasonably well, acquire useful skills, and find regular industrial/services employment. For that to happen, experts suggest that India needs to sustain GDP growth of around 7-8% for a decade suitably complemented by education/vocational education policies working based on empowering local authorities and users of education services. It’s not an entirely unachievable wish list but a pragmatic approach from here on would help the country to live up to his billing as the would-be most populous nation.
