- Ever since the Taliban jihadist and fundamentalist regime came to power in Afghanistan, the regional geopolitical and geostrategic policies have undergone a sea-change affecting not only the bordering nations but also India having invested so heavily there over the decades. It is well documented that New Delhi has pumped in billions of dollars in the war-ravaged country to spruce up essential as well as defining infrastructure projects. However, the swift takeover of Kabul by the Taliban forces has emboldened the Pakistani terror factories to divert mercenaries to foment further trouble in Jammu & Kashmir.
PC: Prabhash K Dutta
- Adding to the Afghan conundrum is China which is positioning itself as a force to reckon with the Taliban by offering multi-billion-dollar aids and assistance. The Indian think tank, more specifically the security establishment, has initiated back-channel communication with the Taliban as reported earlier. Such a welcome move is not only prudent but also ensures our interests are not compromised. The need of the hour is to develop consensus and coherence in the way the global community responds to the fast-altering situation. Against this backdrop, the Third Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan hosted by India recently tantamount to a bold attempt to bring along regional countries on the same page.
- The conference saw the participation of all five Central Asian republics, Iran, and Russia. The Delhi Declaration strongly objected to the use of Afghan soil for planning, financing, and carrying out terrorist activities. More importantly, it also called for collective cooperation against the menace of radicalization, extremism, separatism, and drug trafficking in the region. Simply put, the conference was meant to find ways for the participating countries to coordinate and counter-terrorist threats from the Taliban’s Afghanistan. No surprises as Pakistan and China did not attend the New Delhi conference.
PC: Asim Yasin
- The absence also corroborated how the China-Pakistan axis will continue to undermine Indian interests. Moreover, China and Pakistan’s security threat perception from Taliban’s Afghanistan is very different from that of India’s or Iran’s. As such, while Beijing and Islamabad are betting on Taliban leadership to stabilize their borders with Afghanistan, they may have little concern about the Taliban’s lack of inclusivity of their exporting terror to other countries. The moot point to ponder over here is what options does India has vis-à-vis the developments happening in Afghanistan. Not much but to adopt a wait and watch approach towards the Islamist group and try to deliver aid directly to the suffering Afghan people who have tremendous goodwill for New Delhi.
- Going forward, India should commence full visa services for Afghan citizens who may want to temporarily leave Afghanistan. Exploring ways to send aid to Afghanistan by circumventing Pakistan’s land routes should be seriously considered. As can be seen, India needs to adopt both defensive and proactive strategies given the multi-dimensional uncertainty around Afghanistan. Shoring up domestic security and working with both the US and Russia is a must. Clearly, there are no easy options available given the China-Pakistan threat from both sides of the borders. The above moves should also help us remain relevant and heard.
