- A mostly agrarian society like India has an unquestionable interest in the monsoon forecast that goes a long way in not only formulating the plan of action vis-à-vis sowing but also providing timely information to the farmers to prepare adequately. The nation is hugely and densely populated and does not need any elaboration. The governments in power are mandated to ensure adequate provisioning of food grains and related life-sustaining ingredients to push ahead with the country’s overall growth. A drought-like situation emerging courtesy of poor monsoon is a dreadful prospect for any nation and more for a largely agriculture-dependent country like India. A considerable deficit in monsoon rains means the country will face a challenging situation vis-à-vis food production.
PC: freepik
- We are aware of how global warming and climate change have wreaked havoc on the global community struggling to cope with the vagaries brought out by mother nature frequently. Thus, any monsoon forecast forthcoming from the authorities would be eagerly watched by all stakeholders. As such, the IMD’s recent forecasting of the southwest monsoon for 2023 as normal would be welcomed with a huge sigh of relief. Rainfall is estimated at 96% of the long period average (LPA), two percentage points higher than the private weather forecast firm Skymet’s estimate. Southwest monsoon forecasts are traditionally an important lead economic indicator as they influence farm output. This also helps the authorities to prepare as well.
- This, in turn, influence the economy mainly through two channels, food inflation, and rural consumption. The 2023 IMD forecast marks the fifth straight year when the southwest monsoon has been normal or above normal. It was above normal in 2019 and 2020, the first time in six decades of successive years of rainfall between 105-110% of LPA. Needless to mention, traditional perspectives on monsoon’s economic impact now need to be altered to climate realities. Note that increasingly it’s the spatial distribution and extreme weather events that affect farm output and not the season’s average rainfall. Last year, a heat wave in March in northwestern India led to a more than 50% decline in wheat procurement for PDS and catalyzed cereal inflation greatly.
PC: freepik
- Worryingly, signs this year to are not encouraging. Following unusually heavy rainfall last month, there are issues with the quality of wheat harvested in Punjab. Consequently, the state government on Monday asked GOI to relax relevant norms in procurement. Yes, Punjab is central to India’s cereal security. Last year, it contributed 51% of the total wheat procurement of 18.8 million tons even though it trailed MP and UP in output. Indeed, these developments give a sense of how vulnerable the economy is to extreme weather events. Make no mistake, this factor will play a larger role in shaping economic policy in the days to come as their incidence is increasing. Thus, authorities should be on guard to shield the citizens in the event of weather eventualities.
