- The experiment of coalition governments in India can be termed as chequered at best yielding mixed results. The most often heard reason to form an alliance in the first place is ostensibly to keep the communal forces, read the Bharatiya Janata Party, at bay. Right from the Congress party to all other regional outfits have one common agenda: not allowing the BJP to assume power. How successful those endeavors are can be gauged by the fact that hardly any pre or post-poll alliances have sustained. As we know, the BJP is known to pursue relentlessly and ruthlessly to assume power even if it lacks the requisite numbers in the first place. Look not far than what happened in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh assemblies where BJP didn’t have enough numbers.
PC: Generic
- The modus operandi adopted by the BJP is to engineer a breach in the alliance so formed by inducing amenable leaders to break away with substantial MLAs and to form the government by joining hands. Many of the MLAs are eventually rewarded with ministerial berths as well upon forming the government. We have been witnessing these happenings in the abovementioned states. Now, the one opposition coalition experiment that held off BJP to a great extent is in peril as the unprecedented drama unfolds in Maharashtra. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government comprising allies Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party, and the Congress is in trouble made worse by the fact that none appeared to be in the clue as to what was brewing underneath.
- Both his party and wily planers in the coalition seemed clueless when Eknath Shinde’s rebellion became apparent in a day of dramatic developments. It’s difficult to fathom how the alliance partners remained in the dark even as 20-odd MLAs led by Eknath Shinde decamped to BJP-governed Gujarat. As the drama over MVA’s future starts playing, and if BJP makes a determined bid for government formation, it will be intriguing to see what the wily politician like Shard Pawar will come up with to counter the move. In hindsight, Uddhav Thackeray’s relatively good record as an administrator and MVA’s seeming stability against a BJP that outwitted opposition parties in other states had probably hidden his realpolitik weaknesses.
PC: Soumyajit Majumder
- Mind you, that MLC polls saw cross-voting so soon after Rajya Sabha polls were proof of poor party management. That the MLC fiasco was reportedly thanks to disaffected Shinde speaks even more poorly of Uddhav and his confidantes’ political antennae. Some intelligent moves expected from a seasoned politician would have possibly averted the scenario being played out presently. Uddhav and MVA needed to be far more vigilant. The only viable option left for the MVA is to court Shinde back. If that outcome doesn’t materialize, MVA’s future and even the chances of its very existence as a coalition look bleak. Indeed, the BJP has nothing to lose and would feel content as the emerging events unfold in its favor by the minute. Yes, one more coalition is ready to bite the dust.
