- What was feared all along from the day maverick Donald Trump’s candidature for the presidency of the United States of America was announced has started unfolding around the globe, leading to plenty of economic disruptions and upheavals. Trump’s pet peeve against the global world order was always tariffs, which he considers as going against the interest of the American people. His favourite campaign theme leading up to the elections in the USA was centered around imposing tariffs on some of the countries considered too heavily loaded against the local interests. Making America Great Again meant imposing tariffs on imports that would help grow the local economic activities which in turn help generate more employment opportunities for the Americans.
PC: The Hill
- This is what Trump believes. The moot point to ponder over is that the unleashing of tariff terrorism has only further exacerbated the already struggling economic scenario around the globe. One certain worst aspect for the US and all others about Trump’s tariffs is the chaotic uncertainty they’ve produced. Anyone looking at bare numbers for clarity is driving blind through fog. Those discounted tariffs are as nuanced as national boundaries in Africa, drawn by colonialists in a room. Don’t ask for the source code because there isn’t any. The tariffs used for computation are made-up numbers, as per one financial writer. But the pain is real, and nobody knows how bad it will get. For starters, stock markets have already fallen consequently.
PC: Wealth Professional
- Expected because tariffs are never good for business. And tariffs on a global scale are like a magnitude-10 quake. One former US treasury secretary estimated that tariffs could cost America $30tn – roughly one year’s GDP. But that’s without knowing what other countries will do next. Should China and the EU retaliate with tariffs, 2025 could be a very bad year for everybody. Even if they don’t, the uncertainty is killing. Businesses are in a bind. Move manufacturing from China or India to the US? But Trump could negotiate new deals, making such moves futile. It is widely believed his tariffs are just a ploy to force other countries to negotiate trade terms. Of course, there are other unknowns. Expectedly, the dollar slipped, though Team Trump expected a rise.
PC: ABC News
- If the dollar remains depressed, the US could face high inflation. But if the Fed raises rates, economic growth could slow or stall. There’s no clarity on how high America’s average tariff will be – 22%, as estimated by Bloomberg, or 25-30% estimated by others. In the best case, if every country makes terms with Trump, the new baseline tariff of 10% would be far higher than the 2.3% last year. Unlike China and the EU, India has not taken a combative stance on tariffs, choosing to study opportunities instead. Prima facie, India seems to have a comparative advantage, but again, nothing’s certain. Trump could change his tariff map, keep tariffs for the rest of his term, or drop them six months from now. No one knows, including Trump, what can be expected going forward.
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