- The global community must have been quite perplexed, worried, and intrigued by the long-drawn-out contest between Russian and Ukrainian sides yielding little but resulting in loss of precious lives and properties. The displacement and disruptions caused by the senseless war have had a monumentally debilitating effect on not only the economies of the two warring countries but also a cascading impact on the global community too. The geopolitical and geostrategic alliances had to be altered based on the backers and opponents vis-à-vis the two countries. The sanctions imposed by the United Nations and the United States of America did not stop Russia from pursuing the conflict, though. Moscow could circumvent the same tactic, which is widely acknowledged.
PC: Reuters
- However, ever since President Donald Trump assumed office for the second time, the USA has made all the right moves to usher in much needed peace/truce between the two warring countries. The truce plan brokered by the USA has reached a stage where Russian strongman Putin has to say yes or no to the deal. Mind you, neither answer will be easy for him though. After Ukraine agreed to a US proposal for an interim 30-day ceasefire earlier this week, Putin now must take a call on accepting the proposal unconditionally. It’s decision time for Putin. As reported, Trump’s envoy is already in Russia for talks. But in what could be a negative signal, Putin’s key aide has said that Russia will prioritize a long-term settlement of the conflict over a temporary pause.
PC: Hindustan Times
- Further, if Moscow rebuffs the deal, Ukrainians will be proved right that Russians aren’t interested in peace. For the past three years, Putin has framed the Ukraine war as one provoked by Kyiv and its Western partners. That was used to justify a nationalist vision to reclaim the Russian sphere of influence. But this project is incomplete for Moscow without subjugation of Ukraine. A pause in the fighting right now would mean Russia would lose battlefield momentum just when it’s made some advances. So, Trump called Putin’s bluff. Either Putin agrees to the interim ceasefire or confirms to the entire world that Russia’s military aggression was always driven by an imperial desire. Trump has threatened to keep supporting Ukraine if Putin says no.
PC: NDTV
Note that the US restored military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after it agreed to the ceasefire proposal. As reported, the Polish leadership has called on the US to deploy its nukes in Poland, an ominous sign for Moscow. But taking that call will be difficult for Putin. Of course, many in the Russian system believe the ceasefire proposal to be a trap and accepting it at this stage would allow Ukrainian forces to recover and rearm. Plus, pro-war voices in Russia who count as Putin’s core political support base have trashed the ceasefire proposal. Putin himself told a group of war widows recently that Moscow has no intention of stopping. But Putin must take a call at some point. Trump is staking a lot of political capital on this ceasefire. Interesting times ahead.
