ISRAEL-IRAN TRUCE APPEARS TENUOUS! HOW FAR WILL IT HOLD?

• The global community must be a worried lot with the ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine on the one hand, and between Israel and Hamas, as well as Israel and Iran now threatening to disrupt the established world order big time. Israel under Benjamin Netanyahu has been belligerent ever since Hamas attacked the revellers in Israel last year. Tel Aviv launching a concerted attack on Iran in the last few days was stunning, to say the least. The United States of America stepping in to bombard Iran’s nuclear infrastructure to smithereens must have fuelled widespread consternation among the global community, fearing the conflict would lead to World War III. Thankfully, better sense appears to have prevailed among the stakeholders.

PC: Breaking Defense

• The truce, perpetrated by the increasingly bombastic and boisterous Donald Trump, between Israel and Iran must be welcomed by the discerning people as a much-needed pause from the conflict. The moot point to ponder here is whether the truce will hold water in the coming days, given that both countries are not slowing their bellicose behavior towards each other. Little wonder that the Gulf Arab states are caught in a policy/political dilemma that the Israel-Iran war laid bare. Mind you, had the war escalated and taken on region-wide dimensions, no Arab state would have been immune. It’s a peculiarity of West Asia that most Arab states are not fully in control of their foreign policy dynamics, largely due to the influence of external forces.

PC: ETV Bharat

• Of course, this stems from their own insecurities and intra-regional rivalries, which are labyrinthine for easy comprehension. Case in point, Qatar’s AI Udeid airbase that Iran targeted in retaliation for US strikes on its nuclear sites, is just one of 19 American bases dotting the entire region. Undeniably, Sunni Arab monarchies see a major threat in Shia Iran becoming too powerful. After all, with many of these Arab states hosting mixed populations, their biggest fear is region-wide sectarian/ethnic strife, which Tehran can instigate. The latest Israel-Iran skirmishes would have revived those fears. But the path chosen to counter this perceived threat complicates matters. Arab states are open to a US-sponsored detente with Israel as an insurance against Iran.

PC: The War Zone

• This also means they are willing to abandon the Palestinian cause, allowing Tehran to take the lead on this. Hamas’s main backer today is Iran, and no Arab state wants to host Palestinian refugees. This course also means the gulf between the Arab street and the Arab palace is widening, with Arab populations across the region still having a strong emotional connection to the Palestinian issue. But with Netanyahu clear that there cannot be a Palestinian state, Arab states can’t fully embrace Israel for fear of engendering popular resentment. Thus, Arab sheikhs have become prisoners of their own games. They don’t trust Iran but can’t make full peace with Israel either. Indeed, all the petrodollars in the world can’t solve that dilemma. Is there a way out?