- The ongoing invasion of Russia into Ukraine is playing out quite contrarily as the former country was expected to roll over the latter in no time with its superior military firepower. What is transpiring out there in the invasion story is nothing short of a revelation what with Ukraine forces successfully keeping the Russian forces from rummaging through. Stiff resistance offered by the Ukrainian forces has not only frustrated the Russian establishment but also has succeeded in denting the strongman Putin’s cleverly created persona to a great extent. Of course, the global community is piling pressure on Russia using diplomacy, sanctions, and geostrategic moves squeezing it economically.
PC: AFCEA
- As you are aware, the Indian establishment has steadfastly refused to condemn the Russian invasion as desired by the US as well as other Western and European nations despite mounting pressures. The reason for our present stand is not too complicated since our dependency on Russian weaponry is too well known across the global world. Ensuring our fighting forces are kept in operational readiness is of paramount importance since the majority of our inventory is of Russian origin. Delving further, note that Russia’s pre-sanctions economy of $1.4 trillion is lopsided as it relies hugely on exports of two products viz. oil and arms.
- Also, the trade relationship with India revolves mainly around arms as we source our crude needs primarily from West Asia. However, it is our import of arms from Russia that is in the limelight as the Quad members and Europe aim to persuade India to take a more critical diplomatic position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As such, is India in a vulnerable position because of its dependence on Russian arms imports as has been predicted all along? Not really as we dissect the issue in detail. Note that although Western Sanctions against Russia left a loophole for oil exports, it may not help Moscow much.
PC: KAPIL KAJAL
- As the International Energy Agency report suggests, Russia’s 8 million barrels/day exports of oil and petroleum products, the world’s largest, may come down to 5 million barrels/day as many customers are wary of renewing contracts. It’s a no-brainer that Russia needs arms exports even more. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s data showed that Russia was the world’s second-largest arms exporter behind the US with a market share of 19% during the period 2017-21. Its largest customer was India, the recipient of 28% Russian arms exports. To gauge the importance of India to Russia’s arms exports, consider the previous four-year period, 2012-16.
- During the above phase, Russia had a global market share of 24%, which subsequently fell by five percentage points mainly because India began to diversify its sources. In the 2017-21 period, India and Saudi Arabia were the largest arms importers in the world placing us in a powerful position to negotiate with Russia. Also, it gives the room to critique Russia because in trade a large buyer has as much clout as a dominant seller. Remember, trade ties are harder to shift than diplomatic positions. Thus, India is not in a weak position in relation to Russia. Understand if India needs Russia’s arms, it is also true that Russia needs India to buy them. In sum, India has diplomatic leverage against Russia and should use it.
