How can Any Peace be Brokered Between Russia and Ukraine When Moscow is Not Allowed?

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  • As you are aware and much to the chagrin of the global community, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine simply seems to meander along with no signs of abating soon. Despite the global leadership led by the USA and the United Nations imposing severe restrictions on Russia, Moscow has continued to press ahead with its agenda without any seeming discomfort vis-à-vis economy or hardships. Astonishingly, the dependence on Russia’s energy supplies has enabled several European, Western, and Eastern countries to circumvent the sanctions imposed conveniently to safeguard their interests. Nobody can fault the countries for pressing ahead with their energy requirements even as the ill-advised and ill-timed conflict persists.

Ukraine

PC: Yahoo News UK

  • Of course, the global leadership is attempting to broker peace between the two warring countries for the larger good of the universe. However, the stubbornness and incorrigible ego of the Moscow strongman seems to have time and again jeopardized any efforts at ushering in much-needed peace. One such endeavor was recently attempted against the backdrop of the G7 meeting. As reported, more than 90 countries participating in a weekend conference to forge a peace plan for Ukraine, suggested its ambition was realistic. But as things panned out in the end, this was a woeful misreading of the situation. Simply because one crucial country was not invited, Russia. How can anybody in their senses think that peace could be brokered in the absence of Russia?
  • Make no mistake, international mediators are not going to get far without first bringing both Ukraine and Russia to the same negotiating table. This conference in Switzerland was preceded by a G7 commitment to a new $50bn loan for Ukraine, securitized through interest on the frozen assets of Russia’s central bank. An architect of this plan, the US treasury secretary says that it’s about getting Russia to help pay for the damage it’s caused. This is quite a distinct goal from a ceasefire or peace. Even less formidable goals like food security to return Ukrainian children cannot be accomplished without negotiations with Russia itself. The great stumbling block is the realities of today that are Putin’s precondition to negotiate.

Putins

PC: CNN

  • He wants to hold on to the Ukrainian territory gained through incremental advances on the battlefield and more. Such maximalism has been propped up by the surprising resilience shown by both Russia’s military and economy. And now an additional factor is, calculating that he will get a better deal by waiting it out till Trump is US president. Little wonder a survey revealed that Ukrainians under 35 are the most pessimistic about victory and the most willing to accept limited war outcomes. Two years of death and destruction later, the bitterest truth is identical for both Russia and Ukraine. Victory remains elusive for both. This is what international diplomacy must build on. Serious efforts must be underway to bring both parties to see the futility of war.