- While we were growing up, it was quite a common refrain to hear during conversations about India being a poor country, and the major reason for continuing to be an underdeveloped nation was because of the exploding population. None of the conversations would ever feel complete without broaching the topic of a burgeoning population. The topic of the population was perpetually ingrained in our subconscious mind, making us firmly believe that it is a bane rather than exhorting us to consider the same as advantageous. Of course, our eastern neighbour China too was spoken to in the same breath but reverently, for the way, the dragon nation revolutionized the global manufacturing industry using demographic dividends.
PC: freepik
- Now, we also know how India was projected to overtake China sooner rather than later, and that day is not far away. As you are aware, India is anticipated to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation on July 1 after holding the title for the last 200 years. China imposed curbs on its citizens’ reproduction, restricting couples to having one child on the back of frightening predictions about the population explosion. India, too, was not behind in undertaking a sustained campaign to restrict reproduction to two children per couple. It’s another matter altogether that China had to ease those restrictions. The epochal potential of this UNFPA estimate is rooted in the idea that while India’s demography will keep pushing growth, China’s shrinking population will shrink its future.
- Note that this idea of demography being destiny has a huge caveat related to the quality of the human capital concerned. The statements coming out of Beijing seek to downplay the population trend, but they make a fair point in underlining their high-caliber workforce. India simply cannot afford any complacency about being the country with a 254 million cohort aged 15–24 years but must instead work with full energy to ensure many more of them can cash in on the talent dividend advantage that Chinese officials are currently boasting about. Other East Asian economies also made the economic shift from agriculture to manufacturing based on achievements in education and skilling. Worryingly, India has to traverse quite a distance to reach there. Why?
PC: freepik
- In India, the combined lack of jobs and job worthiness has meant that the farm sector’s share in the country’s employed labour force continues to be over 45%, even as its GDP contribution is under 20%. Mind you, new jobs need to come as much from services as manufacturing, and record growth in service exports is good news on this front. Smart data is necessary for policymaking that can exploit the opportunities of today. As a result, it is outrageous that the GOI has not stated when Census 2021 will take place. It should go without saying that future policies must enable our children to realize the potential of an Indian century and must offer them opportunities for extremely superior education. Only then can negative effects be balanced out by wise policy decisions.
