- As you are aware, people interested in the political churnings will be keeping a keen eye on the results of the state assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Uttarakhand, and Manipur. The hype surrounding the elections appears to be surreal as the national and regional parties desperately attempt to gain an upper hand. The incumbent governments are battling anti-incumbency and the opposition parties are quite gung-ho about their prospects of assuming power once the results are announced on 10th March 2022. As the electioneering narration shows, tremendous emphasis is laid on offering freebies apart from the usual promises and assurances rather than focusing on developmental issues.
PC: Onmanorama Staff
- Of course, the success or failure of this strategy will be known soon. Further, efforts are afoot by some of the regional political leaders to ally with opposition leaders to take on the might of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party led by the indomitable Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Recently, Telangana’s chief minister met his Maharashtra counterpart and some other leaders in Mumbai in yet another attempt by regional parties to find answers to BJP’s national dominance. Interestingly, regional parties like Samajwadi Party in UP, and Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab is making a formidable bid to take on the ruling dispensation viz. BJP and Congress, respectively.
- Now, the moot point to ponder over here is if opposition parties do well in this round, a big if, what might it mean for national elections in 2024. Mind you, experience suggest that all extrapolations should be consumed with large helpings of salt, even though it is true that a major state victory does provide political impetus. Remember, Congress’s strong showing in three Hindi heartland states in 2018 was supposed to have a bearing on BJP’s 2019 Lok Sabha poll performance. As we know, it hardly mattered. You see, there is now all-around recognition that Prime Minister Modi has partly altered the dynamics of national elections.
PC: BusinessToday.In
- Note that post its huge LS win in 2019, BJP faced adverse or not-too-happy outcomes in Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Delhi, and Bengal. Undisputedly, regional parties are struggling to spot a durable national alternative or a pan-India leader to take on Modi. As a strategy, parties like TMC and AAP are attempting to tackle this by testing waters in multiple states. Remember, the dynamics of state elections as compared to parliamentary elections are entirely unrelated. As such, it is no less facile to talk of UP elections as the semifinal before 2024. There are other equally crucial states that matter like Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh this year, and Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, and Telangana in 2023 which are poised to witness intense contestation.
- Yes, it is well-known that the road to New Delhi traverses through UP but there is no guarantee that state elections would play any determining/catalytic role for the next parliamentary elections. Thus, an assembly poll win in UP is great for BJP or SP but, it cannot be construed as the harbinger of change or predictor for 2024 parliamentary elections.
