- The Israeli defence forces pounding on the Lebanon-based Hezbollah infrastructure must have shown to the world community at large their capabilities to reach deep and far against the enemy aggression. The famed Israeli defence forces, their technical superiority, advanced warfare, and most importantly, the single-minded determination to hit the intended target were displayed with great aplomb recently. The famed Mossad was at the receiving for failing to garner intelligence before Hamas struck at them inflicting not only the loss of innocent lives and properties but also the pride of the country too. However, with the elimination of the Hezbollah head, the Israeli leadership must be feeling quite content, and the domestic narrative too would have subsided.
PC: NPR
- However, the global leadership must be quite worried about the turn of events in the West Asia region leading to conflict spreading around. Iran, the backers of Hezbollah, must be seething with anger and itching to retaliate. Nonetheless, Iran now has a chance to shorten the Lebanon conflict by not retaliating for deceased Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Of course, the killing of the leader in a massive Israeli airstrike last weekend has completely changed the security dynamics in West Asia. It represents a huge victory for Israel, which has now practically decapitated the Hezbollah leadership structure and a body blow for Iran and its so-called Axis of Resistance. Hezbollah represents the lynchpin of Tehran’s Shia militia movement in West Asia.
- Therefore, Israel’s stunning offensive against the strongest non-state military in the region has put Tehran on notice. That said, Hezbollah as a group is not quite finished. It has a flexible command structure that was specifically created to absorb blows. Plus, Hezbollah is not without a state – it’s a parliamentary bloc in Lebanon. There’s already a talk of Nasrallah’s cousin taking over the leadership of the group. But much will depend on how much Iran backs the group at this moment. Tehran has been noticeably restrained so far. Reportedly, there are differences of opinion about how to respond to Nasrallah’s death. Conservatives want Iran to strike Israel immediately, while moderates like the new President prefer to avoid a region-wide conflagration.
PC: The Indian Express
- Morever, Iroan directly joining the conflict will be catastrophic. But there are good reasons for Tehran to avoid going down that road. Iran with a conventional army can’t carry out tactically advantageous asymmetric operations against a superior Israeli military. Thus, any direct battle between Iran and Israel will lead to massive casualties on both sides. Yes, the US wants to avoid such a region-wide escalation. So does the Iran President, who is focused on reviving Iran’s economy and resettling ties with the US. With Iran’s supreme leader having been moved to a secure location following Nasrallah’s assassination, this is the perfect opportunity for America to incentivize Iranian moderates. Hopefully, Iran will reciprocate by showing restraint.
