It has been reported by the World Meteorological Organization that this year will be the hottest on record and 2016 weather may be warmer due to the current scenario of El Nino weather pattern. The report cautioned that if an action is not taken on the current climatic changes, then we could see a temperature rise by 6 degrees Celsius or more very soon.
On Monday, a decision that is going to be taken by the world leaders in Paris may keep the the global temperature rise within 2 degrees Celsius; a target which was set in 2010 in order to prevent dangerous climatic change. If this happens, the 2016 weather will become bearable.
World Meteorological Organization(WMO) director-general Michel Jarraud said that it is very much possible to keep the two-degree target. However, he also added by telling that the more we wait the more difficult it will become for the 2016 weather.
He said that there are two scenarios which are equally important for the 2016 weather. The first one is obvious. It consists of faster and efficient reduction of greenhouse gases; while the other scenario is with business, where you might end up with further predictions of up to 5 – 6 degrees or may be even more. All this will be dependant on the decisions taken in Paris.
The global average surface temperature in 2015 was likely to reach, what the agency referred to as the symbolic and significant milestone of 1 C above the pre-industrial area. WMO had said in a statement that this was due to a combination of a strong El Nino and human induced global warming.
The long term averages showed that the temperatures were rising nonetheless of El Nino or its cooling equivalent La Nina.
What WMO said?
El Nino has a natural occurring weather pattern which is marked by warming sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It is the reason of extremes such as droughts, floods and scorching weather around the world. Meteorologists also expect El Nino to be at its peak between October and January and to also to be one of the strongest on the record.
WMO said that an initial estimate based on the data from January to October showed that the global average surface temperature for 2015 was around 0.73C which is above the 1961-1990 average if 14C, and around 1C above the pre-industrial 1880-1899 period.
Jarraud said that all this is a bad news for the planet if 2016 weather is considered. The years from 2011-2015 have been the hottest five-year period on th record with temperatures at about 0.57C above the 1961-1990 reference period.
Global ocean temperatures were unrivalled during the period. Several land areas including the continents like Australia, United States, Australia, South America and Russia have broken the temperature records by huge margins. And it seems that the situation will worsen for 2016 weather.
WMO said that the world’s ten warmest years have all occurred since 1998 out of which eight of them have happened since 2005. They further added that the next year might be even hotter as the amount of greenhouse gases have rose to a new record than the past 30 years and El Nino is likely to continue into 2016. The year whose annual mean temperature is most likely to be influenced by the current El Nino is 2016 rather than 2015.
Source: The Economic Times
Image Sources: Image 1 & Featured Image,Image 2.
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